Data Assimilative Ensemble Forecast of the near Earth Radiation Belts
Data Product of WP6
Data Assimilative Forecast of the near Earth Radiation Belts
Two-day radiation belt forecast of 1 MeV electrons using the data-assimilative VERB code, real-time ARASE, ACE, GOES and POES data. Kp index for the previous 7 days is obtained from GFZ recent and previous month nowcast. 3-day Kp forecast is obtained from PAGER Work Package 3. Forecasts are conducted automatically every hour on spacepager processing server at GFZ. The code computes the nowcast and forecast fluxes from reanalysis directly using the T89 magnetic field model.
Two-day radiation belt ensemble forecast of 1 MeV electrons and 50 degree pitch angle using the data-assimilative VERB code, real-time ARASE, ACE, GOES and POES data. The 3-day ensemble Kp forecast is obtained from PAGER Work Package 3 for 19 ensembles. Forecasts are conducted automatically every hour on spacepager processing server at GFZ based on the latest reanalysis. The figures shows the mean of 19 ensemble forecasts (top panel) and the corresponding standard deviation (bottom panel).
