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Electron Ring Current Forecast

Data Product of WP6

Three days ensemble forecast of ring current electron flux for 8keV, 16keV and 30keV particles at 85° pitch angle using the VERB-4D code. We compute drift velocities using the Volland-Stern electric field and the T89 magnetic field model. Boundary conditions are calculated from a Kp-dependent model.
The ensemble Kp forecast, wich is provided by PAGER work package 3, drives the VERB-4D model.

In the video below, the top row shows the ensebmle mean of logarithmic electron flux in the equatorial plane of the upcoming three days. The bottom row shows the corresponding standard deviation of the ensemble in log10 space indicating the uncertainty of the simulation results.