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Forecast of the Kp Index

Data Product of WP3

Ensemble Kp forecast based on PAGER ensemble solar wind predictions

Description: This forecast product is prepared at GFZ in the context of PAGER HORIZON 2020 project. A machine learning model is trained to predict Kp values using historical solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data from OMNIWeb. The trained model is then fed with the ensemble forecast of solar wind at L1 produced by the SWIFT module and provides an ensemble forecast of Kp up to 72 hours ahead. In the figure below the bars indicate the ensemble median values for the Kp index, while the red lines indicate the maximum value among the ensemble members for each forecast horizon.

Kp forecast

 

Download
  • Kp Forecast Statistics in a common data exchange format (CSV)
  • Kp Forecast CSV README File
  • Kp Forecast Figure (PNG)

The data/data products are provided “as-is” without warranty of any kind either expressed or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, correctness and fitness for a particular purpose. The entire risk as to the quality and performance of the Data/data products is with the Licensee. In no event will GFZ be liable for any damages direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential, including damages for any lost profits, lost savings, or other incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the data/data products.


 

Niemegk observatory (GFZ) Kp Nowcast

This is a reproduction of the Kp index Nowcast produced at the Niemegk geomagnetic observatory (GFZ). The original data can be found here.

Reproduction of the Kp index Nowcast



 

Historical comparison between KP Niemegk and Kp 0 h-horizon forecast

Description: We provide here an historical, last two days comparison between the Kp Niemegk and the 0-h horizon forecast, based on a machine learning model fed with real time solar wind measurements from ACE mission and the SWIFT ensemble solar-wind forecast.

Comparision between Kp Forecast and Kp Nowcast

 

Historical comparison between KP Niemegk and Kp 24 h-horizon forecast

Description: We provide here an historical, last two days comparison between the Kp Niemegk and the 24-h horizon forecast, based on a machine learning model fed with real time solar wind measurements from ACE mission and the SWIFT ensemble solar-wind forecast.

Diagramme of Historical comparison between KP Niemegk and KP 24 h-horizon forecast based on SWIFT ensemble solar-wind forecast

 

Kp forecast based on solar wind observations

Description: This forecast is produced at GFZ using real time measurements of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. A neural network is trained to predict Kp values using historical data. The trained network is then fed with real time measurements and produces a forecast up to 72 hours ahead.

Kp forecast


 

SWPC Kp forecast

Description: This is reproduction of the NOAA SWPC Kp forecast. The original data can be found here.

Reproduction of the NOAA SWPC Kp forecast