Forecast of Hp30 and Hp60 indices
Data Product of WP3
Hp30 and Hp60 (Yamazaki et al., 2022) are Kp-like open-ended indices. This means they are similar to Kp but they are not limited to the maximum value of 9 like Kp. Therefore they can give a more detailed description of the strongest geomagnetic storms. Moreover Hp30 and Hp60 have a resolution of half an hour and one hour respectively, higher than the three-hours resolution of the Kp index.
Hp30 and Hp60 have been added as a product in the PAGER pipeline. You can see below the regularly updated realtime plots.
The forecast is produced using an artificial neural network pre-trained on historical data of solar wind and IMF provided by the OMNI dataset. We feed the trained model with real-time solar-wind measurements made available by NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and with ensemble forecast of solar wind at L1 produced by the SWIFT code, which we also correct using the latest ACE measurements.
Hp60 Forecast
In the Hp60 graphic below, the green bars indicate the ensemble median values for the Hp60 index, while the red lines indicate the maximum value among the ensemble members for each forecast horizon.
Hp30 Forecast
In the Hp30 graphic below, the green bars indicate the ensemble median values for the Hp30 index, while the red lines indicate the maximum value among the ensemble members for each forecast horizon.
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