Stakeholders – such as satellite operators and manufacturers - require space weather predictions to have long lead times and confidence levels and that they should be tailored to particular engineering systems. These requirements will be addressed in the new PAGER project, led by Section 2.7 of GFZ Potsdam and funded under the Horizon 2020 program. The consortium consists of five partners from Europe and the US.

To utilize available measurements and to address the space weather needs, the researchers will combine state-of-the-art models covering all the way from the Solar surface to the Earth’s inner magnetosphere. They will also run ensembles of physics-based and machine-learning models to make predictions of the space weather conditions 1-2 days in advance. This innovative approach will allow the researchers to not only make predictions, but also to provide the relevant confidence levels. On top of that, predictive models will be blended with data by means of data assimilation.

The team includes the leading academic experts in space weather, while the advisory board consists of the heads of the space weather prediction centers of ESA, NASA and NOAA.