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WP6: Data assimilative forecast of the near-Earth radiation environment using the VERB-4D code

The knowledge of energetic and relativistic electron fluxes is required for the estimation of surface and deep dielectric satellite charging. The forecast of the fluxes has to be provided several days in advance in order to mitigate potential negative effects of solar storms on satellite infrastructure.

In this work package, we will develop effective forecasting tools for combined radiation belt and ring current electron dynamics and calculation of the electron fluxes. To achieve this goal, we will leverage the new wave models developed in WP4, the plasmaspheric density prediction in WP3, and the specification of the magnetospheric electric field in WP5. We will use data assimilation methods to improve the forecast by blending spaceborne observations with first-principle physics-based models. We will provide confidence levels for the forecast by running ensemble simulations driven by solar wind parameters predicted in WP2 and the Kp index provided by WP3. The results of this work package will be applied to the estimation of the negative effects of surface and deep dielectric charging on satellites. The developed data assimilative framework will be installed at GFZ to provide an operational forecast 1-2 days ahead.

Lead: GFZ (Prof Yuri Shprits, Dr. Michael Wutzig)